Josh Smith Awesome, Despite Best Efforts
by, Mike Mandlin

This week, Atlanta restricted free agent Josh Smith signed an offer sheet with the Grizzlies for $58 million over 5 years, and the Hawks didn't hesitate to match the offer, retaining their forward. Smith's production thus far in his career, though not unimpressive, hardly warrants $11 million a year, but he's only 22, an elite athlete, and his talent has no ceiling. However, there are some reasons to have concerns about his future prospects. Despite his age, Smith is a four-year veteran, but he still looks like a rookie half the time.

Smith has improved, but after finishing strong in the '06-'07 season, he was widely (and properly) expected to make The Leap to stardom, and he didn't. The only significant improvement he made was not taking as many three-point shots, because Smith is a god-awful shooter. In fact, in '06-'07, Smith was possibly the worst shooter in the NBA. According to NBA Hot Zone, Smith made only 29% of his shots outside the immediate vicinity of the basket, including 25% on three-point attempts. Still, his futility didn't stop him from chucking away, as jumpers accounted for 46% of his shot attempts. Though Smith's '07-'08 shooting splits aren't available yet, it's clear this season was a repeat. Smith's overall FG% in '07-'08 improved by 2%, but that's only because he took a third less three-pointers-though still, a hundred attempts.

Smith is one of the best athletes in the NBA, and almost always has a physical advantage over his opponent, at either forward spot. However, between his horrific shooting and sub-par ball-handling, he's not an asset on the perimeter, and he doesn't have the post game to play on the blocks. For a four-year veteran with his physical talents to still be a 'tweener due to lack of skill development is indefensible. Smith's attitude has been criticized throughout his career, and I can't speak to his off-court demeanor, but his obstinate refusal to alter his game to suit his talents is fairly damning, especially since a low-post threat, complimenting Joe Johnson's excellent perimeter work, would do wonders for the Hawks offense. Meanwhile, Smith gets plenty of press for his work on the defensive end, since he's one of the most spectacular weak-side shot-blockers in the league, but his man to man defense is uninspiring.

So 11$ for this underachiever? Absolutely. In a heartbeat. He's just that talented.

Despite playing so far below capacity, Smith is still a very productive player: unstoppable in transition or any time he's near the hoop, excellent on the boards, and a good and willing passer. If he were only a pretty lousy shooter instead of an abysmal shooter, he'd be an all-star. If he'd stop taking three-pointers all together and develop just enough of a post game to get in the lane consistently, so he could jump over his opponents for point-blank shots, he'd be a superstar. Smith really has no ceiling and slapping down big bucks for the hope that he'll underachieve somewhat less than he's currently underachieving is a no-brainer. If he gets his act together he's a bargain at any price.

www.michaelmandlin.blogspot.com